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Enodo Economics

Track Record

We are proud of our track record of accurately forecasting major developments in the Chinese economy, including the performance of Chinese equities, the Yuan vs. Dollar and the dynamics of US-China relations. Our insights have consistently provided our clients valuable guidance in these critical areas. Please click the tabs below for more detail.
13
Investors are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Monetary and liquidity developments favour Chinese equities, but Xi remains wedded to an economic model which gives the Party ultimate control over every aspect of the economy.
Feb 2023
12
We advise long-term investors to sell into any equity market upswing. We believe the Great Decoupling is unlikely to reverse, and that Xi's economic policies have pushed China into a slow-motion crisis of the real economy.
Dec 2022
11
Bearish outlook for China equities for the short term; Warming US-China relations or changes in zero-Covid could improve prospects.
Oct 2022
10
As China learns to live with Covid, the focus of Xi’s efforts to revive the economy in the short term will be on investment-led growth. That means old-style equity plays are likely to outperform bets on China’s big tech firms.
Jun 2022
9
We expect Beijing to start easing policy more forcefully within the next few months, which is likely to reinforce the views of those China bulls. This may present an opportunity for nimble hedge funds, but at this stage we would not advise a major reweighting towards Chinese shares for other managers.
Feb 2022
8
Consequently, this should be read as bad news for commodities, related currencies and China’s equity market, with any rise offering a selling opportunity.
Jul 2021
7
A-shares might beat other major markets once again in Q2; But long-term investing in Chinese equities is not a good idea.
Apr 2020
6
Any A-share upswing as Beijing's stimulus unfolds in H1 would be a selling opportunity.
Jan 2019
5
From a long-term perspective our advice is to sell into any equity relief rally and to stay away from both Chinese stocks and bonds.
Dec 2018
4
A jump in corporate bond defaults, bank NPLs and debt write-offs could well spook an already jumpy equity market and cause further financial market volatility.
Oct 2018
3
What is more worrying about the trade war for now is that it is undermining both consumer and corporate confidence and contributing to the sharp fall in the equity market, making Beijing’s de-leveraging that much harder.
Jul 2018
2
The rally could well continue in coming months as excess liquidity is yet again dammed up inside China courtesy of tighter capital controls. But our analysis and arguments suggest that now is not the time to make a long-term investment in either Chinese equities or bonds.
Sep 2017
1
If the market perceives China’s financial reforms as achievable and credible, even sentiment toward the equity market could turn positive.
Nov 2016
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17
The economy is in the clutches of a debt-deflation spiral that will necessitate a weaker yuan to cushion the adjustment.
Jul 2023
16
China will defend the yuan and has the ammunition to do so for now...yuan to weaken in the long run.
Apr 2022
15
We expect the yuan to stay stable or on a mild strengthening trend against the dollar for the rest of the year...But the yuan’s fate could change drastically in 2022 as deleveraging, decoupling and redistribution enfeeble China’s economy.
Sep 2021
14
Yuan to stay on mild strengthening trend vs dollar in H2.
July 2021
13
Come next July, the renminbi is likely to be worth closer to 6 to the dollar than 7.
Dec 2020
12
A stronger yuan is in China’s interest now as we have argued over the course of this year.
Oct 2020
11
The yuan is set to stay stable or appreciate slightly against the dollar.
May 2020
10
We change our view: virus means yuan no longer set to fall in 2020…a stable or slightly appreciating yuan.
March 2020
9
The yuan is likely to depreciate sharply against the dollar over the next 12-24 months.
Nov 2019
8
Yuan to fall without productivity boost.
June 2019
7
We expect the yuan to be broadly stable in the next couple of quarters, but we are watching the currency closely as it remains the principal pressure release valve for the economy as it changes.
Apr 2019
6
I expect the yuan/dollar rate to move within a range of 3-5% over the next six months, with depreciation more likely than appreciation.
Oct 2018
5
We do not expect a 10-20% devaluation from current levels over the next 6 months.
Sept 2018
4
This is a potent mix, arguing for a shift in exchange rate policy...Investors would be well advised to pay close attention to the yuan this year.
March 2018
3
Renminbi bulls should enjoy this year’s rally against the dollar while they can.
Oct 2017
2
Restraining illegal capital outflows will prop up the currency and help China for a bit...Yuan’s correction more likely in 2018 than 2017.
June 2017
1
Expect more currency market volatility and more decisive action to allow the yuan to regain competitiveness after November.
Sept 2016
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Enodo Economics pioneered the analysis of the Great Decoupling- the bifurcation of the global economy into a US and Chinese sphere of influence as the existing and aspiring hegemon battle for global supremacy.
10-Nov-2016
The Beginning of the End
"The world has failed to make globalisation work, causing tectonic economic and political shifts. With a dangerously clueless Donald Trump now headed for the White House... and an all-powerful and determined Xi Jinping at China’s helm, the global political order will change beyond recognition. While political uncertainty will abound, Trump’s election puts the world economy firmly on course to reverse the free movement of goods, capital and people that we have known over the past few decades."

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11-Jan-2018
China’s Trump Trade Headache to Intensify in 2018
"Trump’s honeymoon with Xi is over, pointing to a much more strained relationship during 2018. America is reconsidering its China strategy, although it is far from clear whether this has... been well thought through. China is actively working to reduce its co-dependency on the US but is not ready to stand up to Washington. Beijing’s response to any US trade action is likely to be confined to damage limitation. But any accommodation from China in the upcoming trade skirmishes will only provide a temporary respite from an eventual full-blown trade war."

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12-Apr-2018
Xi Jinping, The Man and His Politics
"There is ample evidence in what Xi has said and done to suggest that he believes it falls upon him as China’s current leader to bring Taiwan back to the fold. He is just waiting for the opportune moment."
20-Sep-2018
Key Investment Themes: The Digital Cold War Threat
"The trade war is part of a broader geopolitical confrontation that is not going away any time soon. The new Digital Cold War implies much higher equity risk premiums over the next 2-3 years.... The likely break-up of supply chains is bad news for global businesses. De-globalisation threatens cost-push inflation in the next 3-5 years."

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13-Dec-2018
Key Investment Themes: From Trade War to Tech War
"2019 is likely to see Washington intensify efforts to contain China’s tech firms, enlisting other countries in its campaign. A tech war, even if there is progress in resolving... the trade clash with the US, is likely to dampen investor sentiment in 2019. From the macroeconomic and geopolitical perspective, long-term sector and firm analysis must be carried out within the framework of de-globalisation. Breaking up and re-routing existing supply chains points to cost-push inflation – bad news for bonds and stocks. The world is likely to bifurcate into competing American and Chinese spheres of influence.”

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01-Jan-2019
The Great Decoupling 2019-2024: Taiwan War Timeline and War Over Taiwan Is Inevitable
Enodo Economics starts regular assessment of the probability of military conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea on a 3-5 year horizon, placing it at 10% in January 2019.
12-Sep-2019
The Great Decoupling: Capital Markets War
"Just as China is throwing the doors of its financial sector and capital markets wide open after 20 years of lobbying, the growing stand-off between the US and China means foreign... investors might need to plan for a fast exit. Such are the potential ramifications of the great decoupling between the two countries that is now underway. After Washington’s launch of trade and tech wars against Beijing, a new front is forming – this time in the capital markets."

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07-Jul-2020
The Great Decoupling: China’s Fading Appeal as an Export Platform Set to Lift US Reshoring
"New Enodo Reshoring Index shows tech, pharma and cars are the most likley sectors under pressure to reshore to the US."
01-Sep-2020
Don’t Dive for Cover Yet…but Update Your Evacuation Plan
Enodo Economics launches a specialised service focused on Taiwan, which continuously monitors and analyses the risk of accidental or intentional military conflict over Taiwan on a 3-6 month horizon.
01-Jan-2021
Taiwan: The US-China Lightning Rod That Investors Cannot Ignore
"While a direct assault cannot be ruled out, it is more likely that Beijing will resort in the first instance to coercion short of war. Even if China does not launch... a direct assault on Taiwan there is growing potential for conflict to be sparked by a relatively minor incident. Taiwan is no longer a niche issue for specialists but an issue of growing concern for investors, the international business community and humanity more broadly."

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11-Feb-2021
China and the Great Decoupling: Biden’s Big Challenge
"Geopolitical risk will mutate under Biden and likely increase. It's critical for investors to understand and factor it in. The US will keep confronting China over... trade, tech, Taiwan. The chances of a workable Sino-US modus vivendi are remote. Biden’s China team is competent, experienced and cohesive."

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01-Apr-2021
Doing Without the Dollar: What China’s Plans Mean for Investors
"The Party has patiently been laying the groundwork to advance the international use of its currency. Their plan has now begun to take shape. For China, reducing... its dependence on the dollar is critical but the substantial progress it has made in building the financial infrastructure it needs to do so has largely gone by unnoticed. If the Party succeeds in establishing the renminbi as a rival reserve currency, the geopolitical, economic and market consequences would be momentous."

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31-Aug-2021
Fire and Brimstone Follow Pelosi, but What About Military Changes?
"And while it is clear that China and the US are anxious to avoid direct conflict, there is nothing that points to an improvement in relations and much that... points in the opposite direction, especially in the form of recent and pending US Congressional legislation. The Pelosi visit will have reinforced perceptions in Beijing that US policy towards Taiwan is changing and that the One-China policy is being progressively undermined."

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08-Sep-2022
China's Quest for Financial Self-reliance: How Beijing Plans to Decouple from the Dollar-based Global Trading and Financial System
"Beijing is challenging the privileged status of the Almighty Dollar, as it tries to carve out its own sphere of influence free of Uncle Sam. Enodo's comprehensive... 200-page report explores China’s plans to reconfigure the global financial order, analyzing whether it can decouple from the dollar and create a parallel system based on the yuan. The report lays out China’s strategy, assesses its chances of success, and proposes steps US policymakers should take to safeguard America’s financial system."

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13-Apr-2023
No Hiding Place in US Tech War on China
"That the Biden administration’s technology strategy has hit China hard is evident from the reactions of senior Chinese officials. As US sanctions prompt Western... firms to beware of doing business with China, globalisation and innovation risk being the collateral damage. Next US targets may be quantum computing, biopharma. On the upside, a renaissance in US manufacturing is unfolding, nurtured by massive government aid for advanced chip production and for the development of renewable energy."

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30-Jun-2023
Shotguns for the Jackals
"Both sides needed a tactical pause and although China continues to believe that the US is in decline, it has had to confront the reality of a US that has had greater than expected success in building coalitions to constrain China’s regional and global ambitions. ...

But in the face of impending US actions that include further limits on technology exports to and investment in China and continuing military support for Taiwan, the prospects of further deterioration in relations is real. And China will be well aware that in US defence and security circles the talk is now of war with China as inevitable."

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10-Jul-2023
Xi Jinping’s Diplomatic Goals Stumble Over Lacklustre Economy
"Under Xi, China is now trying to push the US out of Asia. But its leaders seem to be aware that ambitions to transform the country’s industrial and financial structure and set the international agenda still require that international capital. ...

The result is the current ineffectual hybrid policy of trying to pull in foreign capital while locking out foreign influence. The strategy will be more difficult to pull off without the sweetener of fabulous profits in a rapidly growing economy."

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06-Sep-2023
Economic Missteps Undermine China’s Geopolitical Outreach
"With Chinese de-coupling not fully off the ground, Xi may have no choice but to restore China’s economic appeal, before resuming attempts to put a rising East – led by China – back in the global driver’s seat."
29-Sep-2023
Beijing Lobs Sticks and Carrots at Taiwan
"The intensification of China’s carrot-and-stick strategy towards Taiwan is unlikely to substantially influence voting decisions in the forthcoming presidential election in China’s favour. ... But China will continue and likely intensify its efforts over the coming months.

It remains to be seen whether a summit between Biden and Xi will take place or have a significant impact on currently strained relations. But it may be that economic pressures and the impact of the US technology ban will incentivise Xi to seek a tactical reduction in tensions. It will, however, be no more than that."

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➤
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What will you have access to during your trial?
Simple, everything.
  • Enodo Insight: Regular reports that will help you navigate China’s economic, financial market, political and geopolitical developments. Giving you the insight to help you make better investment, business and policy decisions wherever you are in the world.
  • Enodo Untangled: Deep-dive analysis of China, providing you with big picture strategic advice on its economic, financial and political outlook and the implications for the rest of the world.
  • Enodo QuickTake: A short update to a view or our quick reaction to a topical event.
  • Enodo Webinars: Client webinars where Diana Choyleva will present her current views and answer questions. Plus exclusive events where topical themes will be discussed with special guests.
  • Enodo Taiwan Watch: Our specialised service will help you understand the ever-evolving risk of Chinese military action against Taiwan and potential US involvement.
  • Enodo China in Charts: A chart-based publication where we present our economic and financial forecasts for the coming 12-18 months.
Our analytical tools will also be at your disposal.
  • Enodo Chart Library: You will have full access to our Chart Library. Here, you will find every chart we have ever used, arranged by theme and always up to date.
  • Data Download: Download the data from any of our charts to use in your own analysis or presentations.
  • Enodo Infographics: Complex analysis delivered to you in easy to follow infographics.
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  • Janet Yellen
    GUS Secretary of the Treasury
    Chair of the Federal Reserve, 2014-18
    Understanding the Chinese economy is not for the fainthearted. You have to make sense of the data but also be able to put it in the context of industrial policy, Beijing’s political priorities and so on. I liken it to doing a jigsaw without being able to see the picture on the box. Yet that’s what Diana Choyleva does so well in her regular commentary, which I’ve really enjoyed following. And now with the Enodo Economics program she’s put together for edX. Take the courses and you’ll learn not only how to put the various pieces of the China puzzle together, you’ll get to see the whole picture.”
  • Tim Garry
    Chief Risk Officer, Senator LP
    Our favorite expert on China is Diana Choyleva who has branched out and started her own research firm called Enodo Economics. We have been reading Diana for years now and have found her balanced calls both accurate and timely.”
  • Marino Valensise
    Head of Multi Asset & Income, Barings
    In the many years I have known Diana, she has always demonstrated an uncommon level of intellectual curiosity. This has frequently led to a very distinct opinion and insightful investment research.”
  • Mervyn King
    Governor of the Bank of England, 2003-13
    It is increasingly rare to find an economist who eschews the conventional wisdom and is prepared to think for herself. In today’s uncertain world it is a priceless quality. Diana Choyleva is such a person.”
  • Henry Maxey
    CIO, Ruffer LLP
    There is art involved in making economics useful to investors. And economics isn’t known as the dismal science for nothing. Which is why Diana’s synthesis of signal from the noise is so valuable. She understood early on the profound impact China would have on the world economy. Her commodity bull market call in 2002 as well as foreseeing the role China played in causing the global financial crisis and its subsequent structural growth slowdown were tremendously helpful.”
  • Gary Reynolds
    CIO, Courtiers
    Diana is unusual in that she is both a brilliant economist and a great communicator. Born and raised in Bulgaria, Diana understands that economic decisions have real outcomes for ordinary people. She also has the humility to acknowledge when she is wrong (very unusual) and never boasts about the many things she gets right, which have made our clients a lot of money!”
  • Orit Gadiesh
    Chairman Bain & Co
    China matters. Even more than you realise. If you want to thrive and succeed in business, consulting, investing or policymaking you must really understand China and how it shapes the world. This edX programme created by Enodo Economics will help you do just that and stay at the top of your game. It’s rare to find unbiased, thoughtful and practical teaching by great communicators, but this is it. An indispensable guide.”
  • Taiya Smith
    Director, Climate Leadership Council and co-founder/CEO of Phyllis Technologies
    I met Diana at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum and she put me on her mailing list for Enodo’s weekly overview of what is going on in China. I find the combination of economic reporting analysis and targeted facts exceptionally useful. There are many places to get summaries of China activities, but Enodo’s weekly overview is the one that I am sure to read!”
  • Robin Hall
    Founder and Managing Partner 1988-2009, Cinven
    During my time as Managing Partner of Cinven, Diana Choyleva’s macroeconomic analysis helped me make sense of the world economy and how it impacted our investment decisions. She is unusual in not only possessing great analytical skills but also being able to summarise and communicate her analysis in a very effective manner.”
  • Izabella Kaminska
    FT Alphaville
    At the start of 2014, hardly anyone thought that the yuan was overvalued and was likely to go down not up. Diana Choyleva got that important turning point in China spot on.”
  • Tom Keene
    Bloomberg Editor-at-Large
    I am always looking forward to talking to Diana Choyleva, now Chief Economist at Enodo Economics. She has carved out an analysis and a perspective on China which has always been of great value, but never more so than now.”
  • Anthony Hilton
    Evening Standard, August 2011
    Choyleva grew up in Bulgaria when it was still under Communist rule. She understands how centrally planned economies behave, the constraints under which their leaders think they labour and how they are likely to react to problems and pressures. Her most thought-provoking prediction is that the Chinese growth rate is likely to halve because its export-led growth model has reached its limits but the government is unable and unwilling to embrace the alternative.”
  • David Kamons
    Senior Wealth Manager, Firestone Capital Management
    I was cleaning out a bookshelf and found the transcript of a conference that Diana and I attended in Miami in 2008. Rereading it nine years later reminded me how great her insights were then and they are still great. Very much ahead of the curve, focused on what will happen rather than merely reporting what has happened. Great work.”
  • Ashish Shekhar
    Chief Risk Officer Global Banking and Markets & Commercial Banking Asia Pacific, HSBC
    Diana’s research combines data analysis, on-ground client feedback and her expert knowledge on China to put together a view that is independent, insightful and actionable. I have been following her research for many years, and am impressed by her deep understanding of financial markets, macroeconomic trends and policy impacts. A true subject matter expert, who is able to simplify and unravel even the most complicated issue.”
  • Andrew Main
    Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Stratton Street Capital LLP
    Diana Choyleva of Enodo Economics is perhaps the best economic Chinese tea leaf reader there is.”
  • Riccardo Cannaviello
    MD, Symmetry Advisors
    Back in the early nineties I spent 5 years doing business development in Hong Kong and China for a financial firm. I ended up originating the largest IPO on Nasdaq at that time - Chinadotcom, the first Chinese internet company IPO. Since then, I've run across only one economist whose insights and analyses of China coincide with the subtle, non-obvious patterns that I picked up during my business development missions. That economist is Diana Choyleva.”
  • Rebecca Terner Lentchner
    Head of Government Relations and Public Policy APAC, BNY Mellon
    Diana's Choyleva is both insightful and enjoyable to follow. I regularly read her analysis and perspective on China which I find enormously valuable. With China dominating the headlines and market sentiment, now more than ever, she is a go-to source of information and knowledge. Her intelligence, analysis and easily digestible broadcast are a winning combination.”
  • Chriss Street
    American Thinker
    Enodo is the most credible source regarding China insight on the planet.
  • Fraser Howie
    Co-author of Red Capitalism, named Book of the Year 2011 by the Economist magazine
    Diana Choyleva was one of the first China watchers to identify and warn of the slowdown in China. Bringing common sense and questioning analysis to bear, she saw the fundamental structural problems in the economy and the resulting consequences more clearly than many more-experienced observers, who were in denial. Diana is one of the people I want to read on China.”
  • Roland van den Brink
    Founder, TrigNum BV
    Enodo’s China News That Matters is concise and incisive weekly reading for anyone who wants to understand China. It is the only subscription I make time for as an investor. Discovering true trends in economic, financial and political news from China pays off. Proof? Two hundred percent return of an investment of around €140 million. That Matters.”
  • Donald P Kanak
    Former Chairman, Prudential Insurance Growth Markets; Former Chairman, EU-ASEAN Business Council
    I was pleased to be an early subscriber to Enodo’s analytics. China is big, complex and not always well understood by Western analysts. Diana Choyleva offers a unique independent perspective, and, when appropriate, courageously contrarian views that have proven insightful.”
  • Jochen Siebert
    Managing Director, JSC (Shanghai) Automotive Consulting
    I always look forward to the next instalment of China News That Matters, as Diana Choyleva is not only a world class analyst of China, but also a great writer. Fun and educational writing is hard to come by and it’s hard to beat Diana in this discipline. Plus almost every time she points at important issues that I missed, although I read tons of material on China every day.”
  • Merryn Somerset Webb
    Senior Columnist, Bloomberg
    I've been reading Diana’s excellent analyses for some years now and found her to be very much more often right than wrong.”
  • Robert Contri
    Global Financial Services Industry Leader, Deloitte Global
    Diana Choyleva is an engaging speaker, presenting complex issues in the most accessible way. Her prescient analysis of the bifurcation of the world into American and Chinese spheres of influence (“The Great Decoupling” as she aptly christened the theme) has been incredibly valuable. China’s impact on all of our worlds is unquestioned but can be incredibly difficult to figure out – thankfully Diana and the team at Enodo solve this problem for me and no doubt countless (lucky) others.”